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Market Outlook: We Are Growing Again!
by Walt Custer
Jonathan Custer-Topai
March 1, 2010

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2009 was a terrible year, but it closed in better shape. Global electronic equipment shipment “growth” was negative for four consecutive quarters (4Q08 to 3Q09), but it then “recovered” in the fourth quarter of 2009 with an estimated 7 percent quarterly increase versus 4Q08 (Chart 10). To be fair, this 7 percent expansion was relative to a very bad quarter of the prior year–but we are growing again!

Based upon preliminary results (not all companies in our sample have reported 4Q09 financials as we write this column), most sectors of the global electronics food chain declined for the full year of 2009 (Chart 2). Only military and medical electronics and the Taiwan-listed ODMs (Original Design Manufacturers) expanded last year. However, the fourth quarter was a different story (Chart 3) as most sectors enjoyed decent growth (admittedly vs. a bad 4Q08).


Chart 4 shows the annual (12/12) and fourth quarter (3/12) growth for the U.S. electronics food chain. Break even=100. Most groups are improving with a few already in positive territory. The exception is defense electronics, which appears to be weakening.

Chart 5 provides 3-month (3/12) growth rates for domestically shipped printed circuit boards, PCB process equipment, and finished electronic equipment. All three are moving into the growth phases of their present business cycles.


Chart 6 depicts global, monthly PCB shipments (converted to U.S. dollars) from 1999 to the present. If you remember our prognostications of a year ago, we predicted a 22 percent world PCB decline for 2009. The final result was a 20 percent drop. For 2010 (using the monthly seasonality of 2006 as a model), we predict +14 percent global PCB growth at constant exchange rates. We’ll update our global model and track our prediction throughout 2010.

A 14 percent PCB increase would be welcome. Whatever the case, we are growing again!


PCB Fabrication

Japanese PWB manufacturers invested 84 billion yen in 2009, almost half compared to 2008. - Sangyo Times

Korea’s PCB industry revenue increased 8 percent y/y to KRW 12 trillion in 2009, (6-6.2 trillion in PCBs, KRW 1.9 trillion in parts, materials and chemical substances, and KRW 1.1 trillion in PCB outsourcing). - Korea Printed Circuit Association Survey

Market for printed and potentially printed electronics, including organics, inorganics, and composites, will rise from $1.92 billion in 2009 to $57.16 billion in 2019. - IDTechEx

Printed Circuit Board and Multi-Chip Module EDA 3Q09 revenue increased 1.5 percent y/y to $132.9 million.


AE Multi Holdings Berhad (“AEM”)
  • restructured and transformed company operations.
  • will issue a total of 8.45 million shares to Chia Chor Meng at an issue price of 50.5 sen per share under its proposed private placement exercise.
Apex Circuit International applied for Taiwan listing.

AT&S and Solland Solar partnered on prototype production line for photovoltaic modules with Sunweb back-contacted solar cells.

Circuits, LLC began offering rigid-flex.



Ddi:
  • named J. Michael Dodson CFO.
  • Virginia facility received electronics Nadcap accreditation from Performance Review Institute.
DNP:
  • developed low height wire bonding process for embedded component circuit boards.
  • established manufacturing process for world's thinnest circuit boards (0.38mm) for embedded components using B2it technology.
Electronic Interconnect welcomed Widge Merrill to its New England representative, Lighthouse Technical Sales.

Endicott Interconnect Technologies’ Endicott facility received Nadcap SAE Aerospace Standard AS7003 electronics accreditation.

Epec Engineered Technologies began offering quick turn flex and rigid-flex PCBs.

Firan Technology Group parent, Glendale International, declared bankruptcy.

Gemini Data Loggers purchased a Speedline Speedprint SP210avi stencil printer.

Graphic PLC added an Orbotech S.A Sprint-8 inkjet legend printer.

GSPK:
  • added an Irish sales office.
  • received TS 16949 and ISO 9001 accreditations.
Invotec was awarded AS9100 certification.

ISU Petasys’ Sylmar CA facility received International Traffic in Arm Regulation (ITAR) registration from the U.S. Dept. of State, Office of Defense Trade Controls Compliance.

ITO Industries (Bristol, Wisconsin) received ITAR registration.

Lazer -Tech and Bare Board Group formed a manufacturing and distribution alliance.

Lenthor Engineering added a Burkle vacuum lam press MTV100, Chemcut 547 XL, Ishii Hyoki micro etch line (alternative oxide cobrabond modified), and Ishii Hyoki aluminum oxide jet scrubbing system with chemical pre-cleaning.

Macer Sweden appointed Juha Valdolin as its sales representative for Finland and the Baltics.

Merix received a Loss Prevention Achievement Award for 2008-2009 award from Liberty Northwest.

Murrietta Circuits added ACE KISS 103 and KISS 104 selective solder machines.

New Sabina Industries plans to move its printed circuit board production to Monterrey, Mexico, in two years.

Sulakshana Circuits (Hyderabad India) added a Cemco lead-free compatible Quicksilver hot solder leveler.

Tramonto Circuits named Tara Dunn, National Sales Manager.

Unimicron acquired a 40 percent stake in Maruwa, 30 percent stake in Uniflex Technology, and 35 percent of Ruwel in order to strengthen its FPCB and automotive segments.

Ventec up-scaled IMS production to half sheet format. Materials and process equipment Global lithium ion battery materials are expected to grow from 306.6 billion yen in 2009 to 652.1 billion yen in 2014. - Fuji Keizai Co.

Global specialty films market will grow at 6.1 percent CAGR from USD22.18 billion in 2009 to USD29.77 billion by 2014. - Pira International

Global SMT placement equipment revenues are expected to grow from $1,740.5 million in 2008 and to $2,498.5 million in 2015. - Frost & Sullivan

Acculogic Manufacturing Test Systems opened a testing services and support satellite office in Laguna Hills, Calif.

AdoptSMT Group opened a new 600 sq. m. London office.

Assembléon:
  • Nordic was renamed Nordic SMT.
  • started SUPREME (SUstainable PRoduction EquipMEnt) research project with the Technical University of Eindhoven, TNO, Xycarb Ceramics, Tegema Group en Fiberworx.
atg Luther & Maelzer promoted Martin Faulhaber to Managing Director of global atg-LM group. Beckhoff acquired Smyczek GmbH & Co. KG.

BPM Microsystems named William White CEO, replacing retired Lyman Brown.

Christopher Associates released new SPC software for Koh Young solder paste inspection systems.

Computronics released its BEN-Z300 bench lead-free wave solder machine.

Conexant appointed Phillip Pompa Sr. VP of Product Marketing.

Cookson:
  • appointed Peter Hill and François Wanecq to its board.
  • Altoona, Pa., electronics' laboratory achieved ISO 17025 accreditation.
DEK launches its new VectorGuard® double layer platinum stencil.

Dow Corning opened a Warsaw office for silicon-based materials and solutions.

Etek Europe began purchasing and stocking Aqueous Technologies’ automated defluxing, stencil cleaning, and cleanliness testing equipment.

Goepel electronics added a third building at its headquarters in Jena, Germany.

Heraeus acquired Lord Corporation’s thick film cermet product line.

IBL Vapour Phase named Blundell its UK soldering equipment representative.

Japan Gore-Tex commercialized LCP film with high thickness accuracy suitable for high-frequency flexible printed circuit boards.

KEERS Technologies entered the refurbished feeder business.

Kuraray introduced two grades of liquid crystal polymer film for flexible printed circuit boards, multilayer circuit boards and white light emitting diode substrates.

Kyzen appointed Yankee Tronics as its representative for upstate New York.

Mentor Graphics added full-wave 3D electromagnetic analysis functionality for PCB design.

Microscan introduced a new track, trace, and control solution.

Micro-tec unveiled copper paste fine line (30 micron) printing technology.

Milara and Mirae combined technologies to produce a printer and pick-and-place system.

MIRTEC was named one of Inc. 5000 fastest growing companies in 2009.

Mydata appointed Oempartners as its representative in Eastern Canada including Ontario and Points East.

Nordson YESTECH appointed Kevin Garcia as Regional Sales Manager.

Orpro Vision appointed David Llewellyn European Sales & Distribution Manager.

Panasonic Factory Solutions named Assembly Products its representative for Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Vermont, Maine, and Rhode Island.

Park Electrochemical appointed Susan Macaluso to Program Manager, Jean-Francois Le Rouzic to Director of Marketing and Sales in Europe and Mark Carlson to Director of Global RF Marketing.

R&D Technical Services named ARK Manufacturing Solutions its representative for Arizona, New Mexico and Southern Nevada.

Seho named Laryo S.R.L. its exclusive distributor in Italy.

Sigrity introduced an electrical and thermal co-simulation tool for IC package and printed circuit board design.

SMART Group introduced new solder paste assessment test.

Sonoscan developed analytical techniques that separate counterfeit plastic IC packages from genuine packages.

Spectra-Physics introduced a high power 355 nm industrial laser for via hole drilling and flex circuit cutting.

Union Tool plans to increase printed circuit board drill unit sales by 61 percent y/y to 354 million units in 2010.

Vitronics Soltec:
  • entered new distribution partnership agreement with GPS Technologies GmbH.
  • eliminated its Advanced Technology Group.
XJTAG introduced second generation boundary scan test system.


EMS, ODM, and Related Assembly Activity

Advertisement
Worldwide EMS and ODM provider revenue will rise 7.8 percent y/y to $280.8 billion in 2010. - iSuppli

World’s top 100 connector manufacturers recorded 2008 shipments of $38.258 billion; 87 percent of connector market. - Bishop and Associates

ACW Technology is building its first manufacturing facility in the U.S in Durham.

Alchemy Technical Consulting added a IBL SV260 tabletop vapor phase machine.

Altech UEC added Universal Instruments’ Genesis platform.

Altrel appointed Bertnard Demoule Director of Eolane group.

Axiom Electronics received AS9100 and ESD S20.20-2007 certifications.

Bitron Sosnowiec (South Poland) went on strike over salary.

Catalyst Manufacturing Services received AS9100 Aerospace certification in Endicott, New York, Raleigh, North Carolina, and Tijuana, Mexico.

Celestica:
  • acquired Invec Solutions.
  • invested $2.8 million+ to establish a metrology laboratory in its Suzhou, China, facility.
  • Healthcare Division appointed Nancy Duarte-Lonnroth, Director of Quality, Regulatory Affairs; Richard Rubin, Director of Market Development; and Michael Sobolewski, Director of Sales and Business Development.
Compal Broadband Networks acquired Motorola’s Euro Docsis CPE business units for NT300 million (USD9.43 million).

CTS produced redesigned (post-recall) Toyota gas pedal parts in three plants.

EE Technologies added a high speed rapid prototyping line in Reno, Nevada.

Elcoteq:
  • issued EUR 29 Million hybrid securities to repay outstanding subordinated debt.
  • Monterrey, Mexico received Customs-Trade Partnership Against Terrorism (C-TPAT) security certification.
  • received contract to build Inmarsat sat phones in Estonia.
  • will expand its Tallinn Estonia facility in 2Q10.
  • began offering after market support for Nokia.
FCT Assembly:
  • received ISO 9001:2008 certification.
  • appointed ARK Manufacturing Solutions as its representative for Arizona, New Mexico, and Southern Nevada.
Flextronics:
  • re-hired workers in Timisoara, Romania.
  • experienced supply chain shortages in 3Q.
Foxconn/ Hon Hai:
  • is constructing 1,000 hectare industrial park in Hai An District,Vietnam.
  • entered talks to buy Motorola Israel’s Arad plant.
  • offered 500,000-yuan (USD73,219) reward regarding employee’s January 2010 death.
  • set up China LED epitaxial wafer joint venture with Nichia.
  • added 30,000 employees in Shenzhen.
  • signed one billion SMD LED lead frames/month supply agreement with Chang Wah.
  • is building an NB PC integrated supply chain in Chongqing, China.
  • received order for five million LCD TVs from Samsung.
Hansatech EMS implemented LEAN manufacturing and reduced NPI cycle times by 40 percent.

IMI:
  • listed 1.137 billion common shares in the Philippine Stock Exchange.
  • is closing its Philippines LCD assembly unit.
Incap will close down its Vokatti factory and transfer production to Estonia in 2010.

Integrated Ideas & Technologies named Matthew Associates its SMT and Metal Fabrication for Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island.

Inventec plans to expand its server R&D center in Taoyuan, Taiwan, from 1,400 workers to 3,000 in 2012.

Jabil:
  • Cassina de Pecchi, Italy plant went on strike over change in hours worked.
  • started 45 MW solar module line in Chihuahua, Mexico, to accomodate BP Solar assembly contract.
  • cut 1,500 jobs in Jalisco, Mexico, due to lower BlackBerry shipments.
Kitron received a 2.5 million defense order from Kongsberg Group.

Mack Technologies became PCBA services provider for Performance Technologies (Rochester, NY).

Manncorp introduced seven new electronic assembly turnkey lines with throughput rates ranging from prototyping to 10,500 CPH.

Matric (Seneca, Pa.) received AS 9100 certification.

Mikroelektronika added a new testing facility in Brno, Czech Republic.

NBS installed additional SMT line at its headquarters facility in Santa Clara, California.

Northstar Electronics received contract add-on from L-3 to build consoles for the Canadian Navy’s Halifax Class Frigate Upgrade Program.

Note appointed Göran Jansson to CEO and President.

Plexus:
  • appointed Steve Gearhart to CIO.
  • established legal entity in Germany, Plexus Deutschland GmbH.
  • named Christin Taege, European Customer Manager and Rena Thomas, European Business Development Director.
PKC Wiring Systems:
  • ended Kempele, Finland operations.
  • appointed Harri Ojala Managing Director.
Qualastat Electronics will move into its new 13,175 sq. ft. Chandler headquarters in June, 2010.

Qual-Pro appointed Richard Fitzgerald to COO.

Quanta Computers began building its third Chinese mainland manufacturing base in Chongqing.

Remploy Electronics appointed Tony Harrison Key Account Manager.

Sanmina-SCI:
  • San Jose, California, PCB facility received AS9100 Aerospace certification.
  • Became EMS provider for broadband, IPTV and NGN solutions products manufactured at UTStarcom’s Hangzhou facility.
SMTC regained compliance with the minimum bid price requirement of The Nasdaq stock market.

STI Electronics received ISO14644-1:1999 certification.

Surmotech added an ERSA Versaflow 3 selective soldering machine.

Syrma Technology joined wireless industry consortium DASH7.

TECHMA U.S.A., Inc. will begin closing its Gretna, Va., manufacturing operations March 19, 2010.

Technical Manufacturing Corporation celebrated its 25th anniversary.

Titan Supply Chain Services launched new sales division, Titan EMS.

TT electronics Kuantan, Malaysia’s manufacturing facility received ISO 13485:2003 medical certification.

Ultra Electronics Manufacturing & Card Systems received NADCAP AC7120 for electronic and mechanical assembly processes.

Victron named Sudarshan Bahl Director of Quality and Regulatory Affairs. n


Jonathan Custer-Topai

Walt Custer
walt@custerconsulting.com

Custer Consulting Group provides market research, business analysis, and forecasts for PCB fabrication and assembly, passive components, semicondustors, and the electronic equipment end markets. You can reach Walt by phone at 707-785-1777, email at walt@custerconsulting.com, Jon by email at jon@custerconsulting.com, or visit their Web site: www.custerconsulting.com.



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