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Market Outlook: 2010: Looking Better and Better
by Walt Custer
Jonathan Custer-Topai
July 1, 2010

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Our recent recession is now behind us, based upon semiconductor shipment data (Chart 1). It was much sharper, but less prolonged compared to 2001. Much better inventory control and strong end-market demand combined to drive current chip consumption above its 2008 pre-recession highs. All regions are now in growth territory (Chart 2), although SE Asia is clearly driving the rebound.


Electronic equipment sales jumped 14 percent in Q110 compared to Q109 (Chart 3) and will likely show strong 2Q growth as well. Process equipment vendors are now quoting long lead times as their companies hustle to expand capacity. SEMI capital spending growth is strong (Chart 4).

European component distributors have enjoyed a sharp upturn as well (Chart 5). Georg Steinberger, Chairman of DMASS, commented, “In 25 years in the industry, I have never seen such a fast rebound of the components distribution market, from crash to cash in five quarters. We are back at 2008 levels and not far away from our record year of 2007. With all the bookings our industry has collected at the moment, provided it is not all fog and mirrors, 2010 is set to become a record turnaround year for distribution. It cannot be all inventory correction, as previously suggested. There must be real growth.”


Looking forward, printed circuit shipments should continue to grow through 2010’s fall “busy season” before a normal slower period this coming winter (Chart 6).

In spite of ongoing economic worries, shortages and cost increases, it looks like 2010 will be a good year!


PCB Fabrication

Worldwide PCB shipments are expected to exceed $50 billion in 2010 on increased volume and partly from price increases. Glass yarn and cloth are in short supply and PCB process equipment lead times are at least five months. –Dr. Hayao Nakahara

South Korea’s top 20 PCB makers were responsible for more than 90 percent of the Korean total shipments in 2009, which amounted to about $5.5 billion using 2009 average currency exchange rate (1172 Won/USD). –Dr. Hayao Nakahara

Taiwan‘s PCB industrial sector revenue totaled NT103.9 billion (USD3.2 billion) in 1Q10 increasing 2.86 percent from a quarter earlier and 165.1 percent y/y. –IEK


Advance Circuit Technology purchased a Trident III from Aqueous Technologies.

Aspocomp:
  • was ordered by French Court of Appeal to pay to thirteen former employees of its French Subsidiary, Aspocomp S.A.S., approximately EUR 527,000 including interest.
  • purchased a CDTA 650 from Advanced Engineering to pair with its Orbotech Paragon SM20 LDI system.

AT&S:
  • will relocate its headquarters from Vienna to Leoben-Hinterberg.
  • received “Best International Conference Paper” award at IPC APEX Expo for research paper “Industrial PCB Development Using Embedded Passive & Active Discrete Chips Focused on Process and DfR.”
  • set up medical technology sales office in the U.S.
  • is raising workforce by 700 workers to 6,500 and increasing capacity in China and India.


Circuits, LLC achieved ISO9001:2008 certification.

CMK:
  • is spending 2.5 billion yen to expand PCB capacity by 30 percent.
  • invested 500 million yen for new production line at CMKS (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd enabling it to mass-produce printed circuit boards for LEDs.
EDC secured a SEK 4.5 million (EUR 460,000) PCB manufacturing contract from Northstar-Sitetel.

Electronic Interconnect:
  • began offering SMT PCB design and manufacturing services.
  • launched a new, interactive PCB resource at www.EIconnect.com .


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Exception PCB paid nearly £7,000 in restitution after admitting it discharged excess copper into the River Severn.

Flex-Ability (Hartlepool) entered administration.

FM Circuits and Epec Engineered Technologies joined forces.

FounderPCB purchased an InCAM advanced CAM system for HDI site in China.

Glaston named Tapio Engström its new CFO.

Global Brands Manufacture is ramping up total PCB capacity to 4.7 million sq. ft./month and increasing number of its SMT lines for PCBA production from 138 to 150.

Graphic expanded machinery investment in Dongguan, China, plant to £32 million.

Guh Circuit Industry’s factory was damaged by a fire.

HannStar Board will increase its total PCB capacity in Taiwan and China to 6.25 million sq. ft./month by the end of 2010.

Icape named W. Glenn Colescott director of new Icape USA subsidiary.

Ichia Technologies plans to double its FPCB capacity to 100,000 sq. ft./month by the end of 2010.

Intel made loss measurements a required performance metric for its high end server circuit boards.

ISU Petasys entered the LED PCB business.

Lab Circuits added a second Orbotech Sprint8 inkjet system.

Lenthor Engineering purchased an Orbotech OLB AOI system.

Merlin Circuit Technology completed installation of inert anode system for filling of Microvias with electroplated copper.

Multek Europe, Multilayer Technology (Böblingen Germany) added five Schmoll Maschinen PCB drilling machines.

Multilayer Technology received Irving Texas’s Cleaner Irving award.

Nanya PCB boosted its flip-chip substrate capacity to 35-37 million units/month and will increase its monthly capacity of HDI boards to 560,000-660,000 sq. ft. by year-end 2010.

P.D. Circuits promoted Shong Li to Quality Director.

Prototron Circuits Redmond received ITAR registration.

Schweizer Electronic received a multiyear PCB supply agreement from SMA Solar Technology.

Unitech spun off its solar cell unit into new company, Unitech Solar.

Viasystems was named Printed Wiring Board Commodity Supplier of the Year 2010 by Rockwell Collins.


Materials and Process Equipment

Industrial automation electronics equipment (excluding software and services) revenue declined 14.3 percent y/y to $74.9 billion in 2009. –IMS Research

Azuma renewed its PCB copper plating lines.

3M:
  • Electronic Solutions Division introduced a halogen-free embedded capacitance material.
  • released its material library for ANSYS simulation software.
Agilent Technologies acquired Varian.

AIM appointed Andy Dolan Business Development Manager.

Arlon and Rogers Corporation resolved their patent infringement litigation.

BASF will expand its annual methanesulfonic acid capacity in Ludwigshafen, Germany, to 30,000 tons.

Chemtura opened a Technical Center of Excellence in Nanjing, China, for the Asia-Pacific region.

ChipChecker launched electrical inspection services.

Co-Tech
  • is developing copper foils for electric car batteries.
  • will ship 15,000 tons of copper foil in 2010.
CyberOptics named Daniel Good, VP of Corporate Development, and Tim Skunes, VP of Technology and Business Development.

DEK expanded its presence in South America in partnership with Fuji Do Brasil.

DKN Research began supplying substrates for printable electronics engineering trials.

Dow Electronic Materials:
  • opened a new research and development center in Seoul, Korea.
  • received Excellent Supplier award from HannStar Board.
Dow Europe raised epoxy products prices in Europe.

Electro Scientific Industries received Provectus Award for advanced IP processes.

EMC will ramp up CCL capacity at each of its plants in Taiwan and China in 4Q.

Europlacer opened 3,000 sq. ft. facility in Tampa, Florida.

Fabrico and Henkel entered a partnership for Loctite bonding, joining & sealing solutions.

Furukawa Electric will expand capacity for general grade copper foil for rigid PCBs to 1,200 tons/month with construction of 2nd factory in Taiwan which is scheduled for operation at end of fiscal 2014.

GCT started production at its diamond coating facility in Weingarten, Germany.

GOEPEL electronic and InterElectronic Hungary entered a partnership to distribute AOI systems for electronic assemblies in Hungary and Romania.

Isola received OHSAS 18001:2007 and DIN EN ISO 14001:2004 3-year recertification from TÜV Rheinland (Technical Inspection Authority).

Kester appointed Michael Fullbrecht European Sales Manager.

Laird released a low-cost high-performance thermal substrate for LED module applications.

Mallinckrodt Baker:
  • named former Rohm & Haas CEO Raj Gupta chairman.
  • is expanding its solar panel and flat-screen TV businesses.
Nissan Chemical developed a organic-inorganic hybrid polymer for optical printed circuit boards.

Park Electrochemical:
  • elected Emily Groehl to its Board of Directors.
  • appointed Dr. Ke Wang Director of Research & Development and W. Douglas Leys Director of Advanced Material Applications.
  • introduced E-710 Easycure low temperature cure epoxy prepreg.
Seica named Zero Defects International its North American sales agent for bare board flying probes.

Siemens Electronics Assembly Systems (SEAS) introduced capacity-on-demand business models:
  •  SIPLACE Peak Demand and SIPLACE Floating Demand.
Sun Chemical named Toryon Technologies its national distributor for circuit product materials.

Taiflex PV’s back sheet factory in China began production in July.

Tamura started volume production of a flexible black light absorber for flexible circuits designed as LED module substrates.

Taiwan Glass Industrial plans to raise glass fabric capacity by 20,000 tons in 2H11.

Ticona acquired Dupont LCP and PCT product lines.

T-Tech introduced its Quick Circuit QCJ5 advanced prototyping system.

TUC expanded its CCL front-end processing capacity to 300,000 units/month.

Unimicron began offering Shocking Technologies’ XStatic voltage switchable dielectric material to its customers.

Vi TECHNOLOGY appointed Koen Gutscoven Worldwide VP of Sales.

Viking:
  • formed an equipment supply and service division for the electronics production industry.
  • Test named Peter Collins, Sales Manager


EMS, ODM, and Related Assembly

EMS industry had 11 merger & acquisitions in 1Q10. - Lincoln International

Solar contract manufacturing is expected to grow from 1,100 MW in 2010 to 4.1 GW in 2014. – iSuppli

Ability Enterprise set up production base in eastern China for cameras, video recorders, optical lenses, digital photo frames, LCD monitors, and projectors.

Adeptron received a USD1.3 million EMS contract from a defense OEM customer and a $1.5 million assembly order for smart grid applications.

Aero Stanrew obtained BE EN 9100:2003 and ISO 9001:2008 certifications.

Assel added a Nordson Asymtek SL-940 conformal coating system and a TC-2600 V4 IR oven.

Assembly Contracts entered a contract manufacturing partnership with Cinterion.

Bogart invested in a Mydata P&P SMT line with Jet Printer MY500 and Vapor-Phase Reflow soldering system.

Celestica:
  • received a manufacturing order for LumiSmart devices from Cavet Technologies.
  • received an outsourcing agreement from HP Ireland that included the transfer of 140 workers.
China Wireless Technologies will open a handset assembly plant in India by 2012.

Compal earned USD0.064 EPS in 1Q10, becoming world‘s most profitable NB contract manufacturer.

CSM added an Asymtek Century C-740 automated, conformal coating application system.

Diversified Systems ended operations.

Elcoteq:
  • Bangalore received Excellent Award from Quality Circle Forum of India.
  • becomes Sharp’s partner for the KIN Windows phones.
  • elected Jorma Vanhanen Chairman and Heikki Horstia Deputy Chairman.
  • sold ZAO Elcoteq (St Petersburg, Russia) operation to Optogan CJSC.
Electronqiue Lacroix Tunisia obtained EN9100 certification.

Elprog added an Assembléon pick & place machine and screen printer.

EPE moved to larger facility to accommodate 150 percent growth over past three years.

EPIC Technologies received Volkswagen Group Award, 2010.

Etek Europe launched used SMT division.

Flextronics:
  • celebrated production of 25,000 Redbox DVD rental kiosks in Creedmoor, North Carolina.
  • expanded Citrix Systems’ partnership to include joint design of new hardware products.
  • was named ‘Strategic Partner of the Year’ and ‘Best-in-Class’ supplier by LSI.
  • expanded notebook PC capacity in China to 15 million units/yr.
  • received solar panel manufacturing contract from SunPower.
  • added 1,500 workers at its NB PC production in Taiwan.
Foxconn /Hon Hai:
  • installed safety nets and asked workers to sign ‘no suicide’ agreement at its Shenzhen, China plant.
  • employees were arrested for stealing $60,000 in processors at the Santa Teresa plant in Mexico.
  • received Dell enterprise notebook orders for 2011.
  • plans to ship 24 million 4G iPhones in 2010.
Frontline India added a DEK Horizon 03iX platform.

Hanza Intressenter acquired all outstanding shares of Hanza from HSF Group.

Incap received a rotor component manufacturing supply contract from ABB Oy, Machines.

Interphase Engineering expanded its Design & Contract Manufacturing Services.

Itron added 40 new jobs and $4 million in new equipment.

Jabil implemented carbon footprint, on-demand program throughout entire organization. JJS Electronics:
  • appointed Richard Barratt Principal NPI Engineer.
  • developed training process which promotes step-by-step analysis supported by pictorial guidance.
Kimball Electronics received a manufacturing contract for Third Eye Retroscopes from Avantis Medical Systems.

King Jim began offering EMS services in Malaysia.

Kitron received a NOK 45 million/year contract for electronics manufacturing and assembly of industrial tools from Atlas Copco Tools.

LaBarge:
  • received ANSI/ESD S20.20 certification at its Appleton, Wisc., Pittsburgh, Pa., and Tulsa, Okla., manufacturing facilities.
  • received a $1.5 million electronic assemblies contract from Northrop Grumman for F-16 fighter fire control radar system.
Macrotron Systems moved to 75,000-sq.-ft. manufacturing plant in Fremont, Calif.

Manncorp added two “High-Throughput Flex Lines” which include twin MC-385 pick and place machines and “Box Builder Line” with MC-387 placer.

Nortech Systems acquired Trivirix.

Victron:
  • opened Victron de Mexico.
  • passed UL DQS’ tri-annual audit of ISO14001:2004 Environmental Management System, and ISO9001:2008 and ISO13485:2003 quality systems.


Jonathan Custer-Topai

Walt Custer
walt@custerconsulting.com

Custer Consulting Group provides market research, business analysis, and forecasts for PCB fabrication and assembly, passive components, semicondustors, and the electronic equipment end markets. You can reach Walt by phone at 707-785-1777, email at walt@custerconsulting.com, Jon by email at jon@custerconsulting.com, or visit their Web site: www.custerconsulting.com.



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