CPCA Market Commentary
by Guan Jianhua
Wang Longji
July 14, 2008
Driven by the domestic and overseas market and policy changes, the
increasing requirements of environment protection, as well as China’s policy
changes to industry development, China’s electronic circuit industry is
entering a changing phase for adjustment and relocation in which environment
and standards are the key for sustainable development.
China’s PCB industry developed fast in recent years and
strong growth of output in China
is also one of the main drivers for world development. However, for the China
PCB industry, the challenges facing today, especially in environment and
standards, should be solved for further development.
The Turning Point for the PCB Industry
According to CPCA information department statistics, in 2007, the total
output of China’s
PCB industry reached 150 million m2, a production value of USD 15.5
billion (with an exchange rate from RMB 7.5 to USD 1). According to the
Administration of Custom General, the import and export total reached USD 20.37
billion with deficit USD 1.23 billion. The output of China takes as high as 30 percent
of the world total. However, since 2007, China’s PCB industry has reached a
turning point compared to traditional development and growth.
Presently, the global green industry is the trend. After the EU
released RoHS, WEEE, and REACH directives, China RoHS was released, with energy
saving, emission reduction, consumption saving, and efficiency improvement the
primary objects. China enforced
a strict currency policy, which reduced the cost advantage of processing trade
industry of China.
In 2008, the global oil price is increasing quickly and exceeded USD 140.
Weak USD and strong RMB increased the raw materials prices. Domestically, the
increased requirement for waste treatment, tax reform, new labor law, and
salary increase increased production costs. In the first half of 2008, many enterprises
including PCB and CCL increased their sales revenue, but the profit is dropping
significantly. This is a general condition, which has serious impacts upon the
industry as whole.
Recently, the manufacturing companies communicated with CPCA that raw
material prices are driving the internal cost largely with profit drop. The
enterprises are in the critical condition for survival and development.
Facing the increasing cost condition, China production enterprises should
make immediate active strategies and communicate with the upper and lower level
of the industry chain. Factories should have a clear understanding of the cost
and impact, change the product structure, and develop competitive and
innovative technology and products with management improvement to be
competitive in global market. Meanwhile, the price of product should be
flexible according to the cost change environment.
Sacrificing enterprise-sustainable development to compete in the low-level,
low-technology market is not applicable today. Polluting the environment to
develop the China PCB industry is a dead end.
We believe that, with domestic and overseas changes and environment requirement
increases as well as China’s
industry policy change, the China PCB industry is entering a restructuring
period. The technology level will grow, the self-developed technologies will
increase, the management level will be increased, the profit will reach a reasonable
level, and waste treatment will reach international high level.
Environment Protection and Standards Are
the Key Points
Contradictory
standards are the capital issue. China
national standard GB/5479-2006
for drinking water requires the Cu content to be less than 1.0mg/L (the same
standard in the U.S.
is 1.3mg/L). However, the PCB industry effluent discharging water Cu content
standard is less than 0.5mg/L. This means that if the PCB shops discharge the
drinking water as sewage, they will be fined for exceeding the standard. The
discharging standard is twice of drinking water.
For developed
countries such as Japan, the
U.S., and the EU, the Cu
content standard is much higher than that of China, and we did not see any serious
pollution issue caused by discharged Cu.
The consumption of
material, equipment, manpower, and energy to treat water to reach the 0.5 mg/L standard is several
times of 1.0mg/L. The standard is not only unrealistic but is also against the
energy saving, emission reduction,
consumption saving, and efficiency improvement policy.
The industry
relocation should be considered in a broader view of all China. Presently, 77 to 78 percent of China’s
electronic circuits industry (including PCB, CCL, material, and equipment) is
distributed in Zhujiang Delta and Yangtze Delta. In Guangdong Province,
such as in Shenzhen, some PCB factories were forced to relocate or shut down because
of the environmental concerns. The PCB industry is not a heavy-polluting
industry but has certain level of pollution. We are taking active steps to
reach zero discharge. New technologies such as additive or semi-additive
technologies are developed. Presently we have to make better and continued
efforts to reach clean production.
For relocation of
industry, from the all-China view, the industry should be located in coastal
areas or the area far from rivers or lakes.
Recently, the
governments and development zones of Shantou city of Guangdong, Suzhou city of
Anhui, Jian city of Jiangxi, Changde city of Hunan, Tengzhou city of Shandong, and
Yangzhou city of Jiangsu have contacted CPCA, expressing their desire to take
PCB migrated factories and set up electronic circuit industry parks. We think
whether these places are suitable for PCB factory building should be considered
in an all-China view and should be supported by the Administration of Industry
and Informationization Department of China as well as province government. For
the building of electronic circuit industry parks, we think the local
government should consider the following three parts: design and treatment of
wastes should be at the world advanced level; build an electronic circuit
college to train labor forces and management; and support the building of
industry research center.
Currently, in some
places, the local governments take only their own interests into consideration
and asked the PCB shops to set up factories there and make unrealistic
promises, which will lead to serious potential crisis if these places have no
government and environment quota; the waste treatment could not reach advanced
standards; the small and medium enterprises could not treat the waste in
concentrated center; the treatment companies are not qualified for technology
and equipment; and the government policy is not open and just, etc. The results
are beyond imagination.
By referring to
foreign environmental standards, in general, China’s standard level is higher than advanced countries
such as Japan, the U.S., and the EU.
But the pollution is much more serious than those countries. This should cause
deep thought.
Efficiency Improvement for Private Enterprises
The Chinese
electronic circuit industry is connected to world industry and affected by the
global industry environment. The China PCB industry plays an important role in
connecting the China
electronics and information industry and will inevitably be influenced by China
industry policy changes. The following issues deserve our attention.
First the production
efficiency is critical both on the industry and factory level. According to
statistics, China enterprise
average production efficiency is only 1/30 of the U.S.,
1/16 of Japan,
and 1/7 of Korea. The
production efficiency improvement is one of the most important topics,
especially for private enterprises. Secondly, we must attach high importance to
industry information, including technology and process, environment, training,
research and development, management, government policy, as well as the supply
chain upper and lower level environment. Thirdly, we should create
and develop new markets and cultivate special technologies or enterprises to
increase competitiveness to stand out in global competition.
We are concerned
about those old private enterprises. If they have no special features, do not
improve their management, research, and product as well as waste treatment,
they will fall into desperate conditions because the government and industry
market do not allow low level, low efficiency, polluting enterprises to exist
in fast development.
Therefore, we must
take immediate action to fight for survival and development We have to be
cautious to the earthquake in our industry.
PCB Industry Price Increase Statistics Regarding 2008 cost increases, the CPCA information department surveyed
dozens of representing PCB and CCL manufacturing companies. According to the
survey results, the PCB manufacturing materials increased significantly: FR-4
CCL, which takes up about 40 percent of raw material cost, increased by 7
percent; cooper foil, copper, prepreg, nickel, tin and lead, and gold take up
25 percent raw material cost and increased by 12 percent; chemicals with 10
percent cost increased by 9 percent; labor cost increased by 14 percent; and currency
change, tax change, and others increased by 3 percent. CCL is also faced with
cost increase pressure. The net cost increase reached 7% in the first half of
2008.
In summary, PCB
manufacturing net cost increased by 8.5 percent! It
is predicted that the net cost of manufacturing will continue to grow in 2008.
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