Market Outlook: Difficult First Quarter Globally . . . Business Cycles Now Improving, but Real "Growth" Delayed to 2010 by WaltCuster Jonathan Custer-Topai June 1, 2009
Global
electronic equipment revenues declined an estimated 11 percent in
1Q09 vs. 1Q08 based upon the composite first quarter financials of a
large group of OEMs (Chart 1). Although inventories eased a bit last
quarter in real terms, the ratio of inventories/sales (Chart 2)
increased for OEMs, EMS companies, and electronic component
distributors (but held steady at a high level for semiconductor
makers). Lower sales (not higher stock levels) drove the 1Q09
inventory/sales ratios higher.
First quarter global revenue “growth”
by sector was awful (Chart 3) with only military electronics in
positive territory.
U.S. electronic equipment orders and
shipments (Chart 4) performed better than most of the world –
thanks to the U.S.’s higher dependence on less volatile end markets
(military, medical, instruments, and controls). Of course these
“domestic markets” offer much lower volumes compared to
computers, mobile communications, consumer electronics, and
automotive sectors, which drive export dependent SE Asia.
Chart 5 summarizes the first quarter
annualized (12/12) and 3-month (3/12) growth of the N. American
electronics food chain. The 3/12 "eads" the 12/12. For many
sectors, the U.S. performed better than the world in 1Q09 –
although business was bad everywhere!
Looking forward, the global business
cycles for PCBs, semiconductors, and electronic equipment appear to
be at or near their low points (Chart 6), but actual growth won’t
resume until these 3/12 values “turn north” and cross the
3/12=1.0 line.
It still appears that 2009 will be a
very difficult year with recovery (real growth) not occurring until
2010. Fortunately, however, the worst (1Q09 trough) is behind us!
China’s high-layer count PCB
suppliers are benefitting from its government’s $59 billion
commitment to a new TD-SCDMA 3G wireless system. - Dr. Hayao
Nakahara
Japan’s circuit board industry value
is expected to decrease 6.9 percent y/y to ¥ 1,109.6 billion
(USD11.3 billion) in 2009. - JPCA
Malaysian PCB manufacturing sales
value fell 49.4 percent in February 2009. - Malaysian Statistics
Department
S. Korea’s top 16 PCB makers
registered nearly 13 percent y/y growth in 2008 in local currency,
but minus 4 percent when converted in “average” 2008 exchange
rate (1,107 Won/USD). - Dr Hayao Nakahara
Taiwan’s April PCB order visibility
extended to 3-4 weeks from 2-3 weeks due to increased orders from the
notebook and TFT LCD segments. - Digitimes
4th Dimension PCB obtained
International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) registration.
Aspocomp named Sami Holopainen CFO.
AT&S shifted its focus to high-end
manufacturing in the mobile devices market.
PC Boards Inc. (Chanute, Kans.)
founder Dennis Steinman joined D. B. Management Group.
DDi received Nadcap accreditation for
its Ohio facility.
Dyconex installed new plasma
desmearing equipment.
EMA Design Automation acquired
DesignAdvance.
Endicott Interconnect Technologies
formed a strategic manufacturing alliance with Cartel Electronics.
Eurocircuits opened a second European
production unit in Aachen, Germany.
GPV Industries:
filed for the suspension of
payments for GPV Industri, GPV PCB Division, GPV Teknik, GPV Laser
Teknik Glostrup, and Dentalman.
terminated in-house PCB
production and spun off Printca.
laid-off ten employees in
Aars, Denmark.
Graphic Plc (Crediton) received IECQ
capability approval (QC 001002-3) for a PCB manufacturing system that
complies with IPC-6012 and IPC-6013 requirements.
IPC made J-STD-075-DE available in
German.
JetPCB began stocking Rogers and
Aluminum materials.
MFLEX commenced construction of its
MFC3 manufacturing facility in Suzhou, China.
Nitto Denko started closure of its LCD
driver module, COF substrate business.
Pho-Tronics appointed David Olson GM.
Printed Circuits received U.S. &
Canadian Joint Certification (JCP) for military and aerospace
applications.
Printline investors assumed ownership.
Quality Circuits (Fergus Falls, Minn.)
celebrated its 20th anniversary of operation.
Ruwel laid-off half of its 300 workers
in Geldern and Pfullingen, Germany.
SchmartBoard received a patent for
“EZ” technology for hand soldering SMT electronic components.
Schweizer Electronic:
entered a customer support,
production, and technology partnership with Meiko Electronics.
introduced Jumatech
“Wirelaid” technology and combined fine conductor and high
current structures in a single PCB.
suspended short-work in all
manufacturing facilities in May.
Spirit Circuits acquired Aztec
Circuits (UK).
TC Interconnect shifted its focus from
single-sided and double-sided PCBs to multilayered PCBs for high-end
Japanese, Korean, and European markets.
Unitech Printed Circuit Board 3+n+3
HDI board output increased from 10 percent at the end of 2008 to 20
percent as a result of handset chip packaging changing from
wire-boding to flip-chip.
Würth Elektronik closed its PCB
manufacturing facility in Pforzheim and implemented a short-work in
Niedernhall, Schopfheim, and Rot am See.
Materials, process equipment and related activities
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3M offered 3,600 U.S. employees early
retirement.
Aeroflex acquired VI Technology.
Agilent laid-off 300 workers in Santa
Rosa, Calif.
AGY introduced L-Glass™ fiber for
high frequency, improved signal integrity circuit designs.
Altus Group named David Boyd its
Scotland Sales Manager.
Asymtek introduced DispenseJet®
Systems that enable consistent and reliable dispensing of liquid
electrolyte materials for micro-fuel cells and electrochemical
applications.
BTU International named Peter Tallian
CFO.
C.L. TECH entered an agreement for the
manufacture, support, and global distribution of Mania Technologie
universal grid testers.
Co-Tech raised copper foil prices by
5-10 percent.
Cyncrona OU (Estonia) acquired elnitec
(Sweden).
DEK:
introduced its ProFlow®
enclosed print head system.
appointed Prodelec its
exclusive distributer in Italy.
DfR Solutions was chosen by the U.S.
Navy to perform a Pb-free solder reliability study.
Dielectric Solutions filed an
involuntary Chapter 11 petition in U.S. bankruptcy court.
DKN Research Group and NY Industries
co-developed embedded passive technology built on thin multilayer
thick film flexible substrates.
DuPont:
cut production, reduced
fixed costs by $730 million, laid-off 2,500 full-time and 8,000
contract workers, and asked salaried employees to take unpaid time
off.
Printed Circuit Materials
introduced two new LDI dry film photoresists.
ESI sold a LaserMill Micromachining
system to Lund University in Sweden for micro-wire and circuitry
production used to combat the effects of Parkinson’s
disease.
Essemtec:
named PMTech its SMT
entry-level machine distributor.
started equipment supplier
subsidiary SMT Essemtec Benelux in Herselt, Belgium, for Belgium,
Netherlands, and Luxembourg markets.
Etek began distribution of Aqueous
Technologies products in the UK.
Europlacer became the UK distributer
for ASC International and Hexi Electronic Equipment reflow
systems.
GOEPEL electronic added Testonica to
the global alliance program GATE (GOEPEL Associated Technical
Experts).
HMS-Höllmüller named John Gebhardt
Sales Manager for Asia.
Huntsman received a credit waiver from
its lenders for its $650 million revolving credit facility.
Imbera secured USD15 million in Series
B funding from NorthZone, Index, and Conor.
Isola subsidiary Polyclad Laminates
renewed its Drum Side Treated Foil license agreement with Nan
Ya.
Kulicke & Soffa selected
BoardVantage to distribute board materials.
Kyocera Tycom named Jim Good
President.
Lincoln International was named
“Middle Market Investment Bank of the Year” by Buyouts Magazine.
Machine Vision Products commenced a
Chinese language Web site.
Manncorp introduced
‘Dross-B-Gone™’ powder, which recycles
solder by separating the dross.
Micronic Laser Systems acquired MYDATA
Automation.
MicroScreen began offering screen
frames up to 70” x 102” at its new manufacturing facility in
South Bend, Ind.
MIRTEC Europe appointed pb tec as its
distributor in Germany, Austria, and German speaking part of
Switzerland.
MYDATA laid-off 40 workers in
Sweden.
Nan Ya raised CCL prices by 5 percent
in April.
Nextreme Thermal Solutions and
Nucletron Technologies entered into a distribution agreement.
Nordson Chairman, CEO & President
Ed Campbell announced his intention to retire in early 2010.
Orbotech completed sale of its
electronics assembly business to Orpro Vision.
Panasonic named Tom Gebhardt President
of Panasonic Factory Solutions Company of America.
Park Electrochemical appointed:
Patrick Crowley to VP of
R&D.
Marty Kendrick to VP of
Operations.
Jim Stewart to VP of
Operations/Nelco Products.
Tom Pursch to President of
Park Aerospace Structures and Park Aircraft Technologies.
Polar Instruments introduced its first
standalone Speedstack impedance coupon generator.
PROMATION selected Tonka Electronics
as its authorized sales representatives for Minnesota, North Dakota,
South Dakota, and parts of Wisconsin.
Siemens Canada named Roland Aurich
President and CEO.
SIPLACE unveiled new SX placement and
MultiStar Collect & Pick & Place machines.
Teradyne cut 350 jobs and reduced
executive base salaries by 20 percent.
Thermal Conductive Bonding received
Reactive NanoTechnologies’ NanoBond®
process technology license.
Universal Instruments laid off 30
workers at its Conklin and Kirkwood (NY) facilities.
Uyemura:
achieved ISO 9001:2008
Quality Management certification.
began distribution of its
new Clear Signals PCB newsletter.
introduced a new,
ultra-robust electroless nickel-phosphorus process engineered for
EN/gold plating.
Zierick Manufacturing received the
Higgins-Caditz award from the Precision Metalforming Association for
its new metal-stamping-based interconnect system.
EMS, ODM and related assembly activities
Bulgarian electronics manufacturing
market revenues are expected to grow from US$441 million in 2008 and
to US$887 million in 2015. - Frost & Sullivan
Indian surface mount technologies
market revenues are projected to grow at a 13.2 percent CAGR from $54
million in 2008 to $89 million in 2012. - Frost &
Sullivan
The top 50 EMS providers for 2008 grew
collectively by 7.7 percent to $158.5 billion. - MMI
Alta Manufacturing and Alta Via
Technologies formed an exclusive strategic alliance to develop and
implement an innovative PCB technology manufacturing and assembly
roadmap.
ACW Technology appointed Jim Davies
Business Development Manager and Simon Cruddace International Sales
Director.
Alta Manufacturing named Craig Arcuri
CEO.
AMAX expanded its Fremont, Calif.,
operations to 145,000 sq. ft. and completed its Pudong, Shanghai,
China facilities.
Celestica’s Monterrey and Reynosa
Mexico plants were unaffected by the swine-flu outbreak.
Contac opened a new office in
Shenzhen, China.
ControlTek installed KISS-103
Selective Solder technology from ACE Production Technologies.
CT Production purchased an Xpress
placement system from Europlacer.
CTS received several electronic
throttle control accelerator pedal module manufacturing contracts
from a German car manufacturer and Asian customers.
Custom Electronics Integrators
received a loan guarantee from The Provincial Government to help it
maintain 75 jobs.
Da-Tech closed its Raleigh electronics
plant.
Elcoteq stopped production at its
smallest Pécs, Hungary, plant due to falling orders.
Enics began closing its Vaasa and
Jyskä units in Finland, resulting in 150 lay-offs.
Express Manufacturing received ISO
13485:2003 Medical Electronics accreditation.
Flextronics:
began hiring back 100-200
workers in Zalaegerszeg (western Hungary) to cover a large
order.
elected former Seagate CEO
William Watkins to its Board of Directors.
began building a logistics
center in Lodz, Poland.
Foxconn International Holdings (FIH)
cut its capex 27.5 percent from US690 million in 2008 to US500
million in 2009.
Foxconn/ Hon Hai:
Chairman T. Guo deferred
retirement until greener times.
is targeting 30 percent
revenue growth for 2009.
joined the Qseven
consortium.
Juárez, Mexico, factory
and warehouse were destroyed by a fire.
partnered with Quellan on
interconnect.
postponed all the business
trips to Mexico to protect employees from swine flu.
set 2009 Capex at $500
million.
subsidiary Q-Edge could get
incentive package to open assembly and distribution facility in
Alliance, Texas. It plans to lease 365,440 sq. ft. in the former
Nokia cellphone plant.
GE Healthcare:
outsourced Milwaukee Tower
Ave. PCB production.
plans to lay-off all 179
employees by the end of the year.
Harris received USD150-million order
for portable satellite radios from U.S. Army.
IPC began new statistical program to
track worldwide EMS financial metrics.
Jabil Circuit opened a design center
in Colorado Springs (USA).
Jurong Technologies sold its two-story
Tuas factory for $3.53 million at auction.
KCS Electronica Assemblage in
Dordrecht purchased three DIMA Modulo pick & place machines and a
Solano reflow oven.
Kenmec Mechanical Engineering acquired
an 8.41 percent stake in Loyalty Founder Enterprise (LFE) with a NT50
million (US1.48 million) investment.
Key Tronic elected Craig Gates
President and CEO.
Kimball Electronics received a
contract from V.I.O to manufacture wearable digital camera
systems.
LaBarge received a $5.1 million
electronic subassembly contract from Bell Helicopter for the V-22
Osprey aircraft program.
MC Assembly achieved ISO 13485:2003
quality certification for its Florida and central Mexico
manufacturing facilities.
Nam Tai Electronics closed its Macao
office.
OnCore Manufacturing Services (San
Jose, Calif.) added a FLEXconveyor from Bliss Industries.
PartnerTech laid off 80 in Sieradz,
Poland.
Platinum Equity acquired the wire
harness and electrical distribution business from Alcoa.
Quanta Computer became GMP (Good
Manufacturing Practice) certified by the Department of Health (DOH)
of the Taiwan Cabinet.
Raven Industries cut 29 employees in
its Applied Technology Division in Sioux Falls.
Sanmina-SCI plans to hire up to 90
employees by the end of this year and rent an additional 25,000 sq.
ft. in Kanata, Canada.
Sparton will close its plant at its
headquarters in Jackson, Michigan, by June 30, 2009.
Steca Electronics established a sales
office in Marostica, Italy.
Suntron received a PCBA contract from
Elbit Systems for Heads-Up-Displays.
TRICOR Systems received ISO 13485
medical device certification from NSAI (National Standards Authority
of Ireland).
TT electronics:
Kuantan, Malaysia, facility
received ISO 14001 certification for its environmental management
system.
appointed John Bran VP
Global Business Development.
TVAB ended production in Töcksfors,
Sweden, and transferred production to Poland.
Ultra Electronics opened an
engineering services and production hub with two SMT lines, AOI,
flying probe, and functional test capabilities near Cambridge,
UK.
Zollner Elektronik purchased Juki SMD
placement machines.
ZOTAC signed motherboard and graphic
card distribution agreements for Al Hasoob in Saudi Arabia.
WaltCuster walt@custerconsulting.com Walt Custer’s column is sponsored by Dow Electronic Materials. Custer Consulting Group provides market research, business analysis and forecasts for PCB fabrication & assembly, passive components, semiconductors and the electronic equipment end markets. You can reach Walt by phone at 707-785-1777, e-mail at walt@custerconsulting.com or visit his web site: www.custerconsulting.com.
Jonathan Custer-Topai
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