Market Outlook: Ever Increasing (But Still Restrained) Optimism The
U.S. economic outlook continues to brighten (modestly). Stock prices,
consumer and business confidence, the ISM “Purchasing Managers”
index, and even auto sales were up as we wrote this column in early
June. Although we are clearly still in a recession, a more optimistic
tone is emerging. The Wall Street Journal’s panel of “Blue Chip”
economists recently modified its U.S. GDP growth forecast - with Q209
still projected to decline (but at a lesser amount than forecasted
earlier) and then growth resuming in the third quarter (Chart 1).
by WaltCuster Jonathan Custer-Topai
BPA Growth Curves: Where Are We on the Business Cycle? We
hear plenty about the disastrous situation “sub primes” got us
into and we have felt the effect very severely in our industry. The
downturn is into its second year, the really crucial questions are,
“Where are we on the cycle?” and “When will things pick up?”
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